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Polls vs. Elections
Raw
.block
license: mit
height: 500
border: yes
Raw
README.md

It is a fact that nuances of election polling is largely incomprehensible to the general public in Iceland. The media tries its utmost to cause even more confusion by representing all polls as if they were of equal importance, and each swing in party-following between two as if it were significant and not a statistical variation from pollster to pollster.

As long as I remember people have been singing the same song, that the established conservative parties are under-measured in the polls and will somehow get more on election day. Most recent example by Karl Garðarsson, an MP for the Progressive party (Framsóknarflokkurinn).

"I think history shows that the polls tend to underestimate support for the Progressive party. Many dutiful supporters of the party don't participate in online surveys or when they are phoned and I am certain that these people and more will add up on election day."

This might be dismissed as keeping hopes up were it not for the fact that this is regurgitated by someone every election.

It is obvious to anyone who cares to take a moment for critical thought, that if there were a predictable trend to this effect, the pollsters would adjust for it. And, indeed, they do.

The plots above are of the last poll by pollsters prior to an election against the election outcome. Three things are evident:

  1. Elections have character. Some are evidently harder to predict than others.

  2. Pollster accuracy varies. Some are simply better than others.

  3. If there ever was a skew, it has not been there for two decades. During which time the constituency sizes have been changed and 2 of the 4 major parties have been re-invented. Most differences shown would not account for more than a single MP difference overall.

It is worth mentioning that these polls are not predictions. While some pollsters weigh the outcome, they are trying to measure the party following, not to predict the election outcome. Despite this, the better pollsters seem to be doing a pretty accurate job. Even when, as is done here, we disregard the confidence intervals and just go with the reported numbers.

So why do people think they see this happening?

  1. Maybe it was true at some point. Possibly this was something that was true 30 years ago and we keep repeating despite it being out of date?

  2. The Progressive party have a history of making somewhat last minute bold promises to ramp up following at the final period before election. For those not paying attention to the last polls this might translate as a leap.

  3. Because of the way supplementary seats work, along with a skew between constituencies, it might be that the Progressive party gains more seats through the constituencies than overall numbers would indicate.

Raw
election-results.csv
party date percent
Alþýðubandalagið 1995-04-08 0.143
Alþýðuflokkurinn 1995-04-08 0.114
Alþýðufylkingin 2016-10-29 0.003
Björt framtíð 2013-04-27 0.083
Björt framtíð 2016-10-29 0.072
Borgarahreyfingin 2009-04-25 0.072
Dögun 2013-04-27 0.031
Dögun 2016-10-29 0.017
Dögun 2016-10-29 1
Flokkur Fólksins 2016-10-29 0.035
Framsóknarflokkurinn 1995-04-08 0.233
Framsóknarflokkurinn 1999-05-08 0.184
Framsóknarflokkurinn 2003-05-10 0.177
Framsóknarflokkurinn 2007-05-12 0.117
Framsóknarflokkurinn 2009-04-25 0.148
Framsóknarflokkurinn 2013-04-27 0.244
Framsóknarflokkurinn 2016-10-29 0.115
Frjálslyndi flokkurinn 1999-05-08 0.042
Frjálslyndi flokkurinn 2003-05-10 0.074
Frjálslyndi flokkurinn 2007-05-12 0.073
Frjálslyndi flokkurinn 2009-04-25 0.022
Hægri grænir 2013-04-27 0.017
Húmanistaflokkurinn 2016-10-29 0.0
Kvennalistinn 1995-04-08 0.049
Lýðræðisvaktin 2013-04-27 0.025
Píratar 2013-04-27 0.051
Píratar 2016-10-29 0.145
Samfylkingin 1999-05-08 0.268
Samfylkingin 2003-05-10 0.31
Samfylkingin 2007-05-12 0.268
Samfylkingin 2009-04-25 0.298
Samfylkingin 2013-04-27 0.129
Samfylkingin 2016-10-29 0.057
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 1995-04-08 0.371
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 1999-05-08 0.407
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 2003-05-10 0.337
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 2007-05-12 0.366
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 2009-04-25 0.237
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 2013-04-27 0.267
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 2016-10-29 0.290
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 1999-05-08 0.091
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 2003-05-10 0.088
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 2007-05-12 0.144
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 2009-04-25 0.217
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 2013-04-27 0.109
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 2016-10-29 0.159
Viðreisn 2016-10-29 0.105
Íslandshreyfingin 2007-05-12 0.033
Íslenska þjóðfylkingin 2016-10-29 0.002
Þjóðvaki 1995-04-08 0.072
Raw
index.html
<!DOCTYPE html>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<style>
text {
font: 12px sans-serif;
fill: #555;
}
text.title {
font-size: 14px;
}
.bar {
fill: #ddd;
}
.poll {
stroke: white;
stroke-width: .75;
}
.err {
stroke: none;
stroke-width: .75;
}
.axis-y line {
stroke: #888;
stroke-dasharray: 2 2;
}
.axis-y .zero {
stroke-dasharray: none;
}
.axis-y path,
.axis-x path {
display: none;
}
body:hover .err,
body:hover .have-err {
stroke: black;
}
</style>
<body>
<script src="https://d3js.org/d3.v4.min.js"></script>
<script>
var margin = {top: 40, right: 10, bottom: 20, left: 40},
width = 470 - margin.left - margin.right,
height = 220 - margin.top - margin.bottom;
var x = d3.scaleBand().rangeRound([0, width]).padding(0.2),
y = d3.scaleLinear().rangeRound([height, 0]);
var palette = {
'Félagsvísindastofnun': '#F15854',
'Gallup': '#5DA5DA',
'Stöð 2 / Bylgjan': '#FAA43A',
'Fréttablaðið': '#FAA43A',
'Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2': '#FAA43A',
'365 miðlar': '#FAA43A',
'DV': '#60BD68',
'PricewaterhouseCoopers': '#DECF3F',
'Blaðið': '#B2912F',
'MMR': '#B276B2',
};
// standard error with 95% confidence
function stderr95 ( p, n ) {
return Math.sqrt( p * ( 1 - p ) / n ) * 1.96;
}
function commonKey ( a, b ) {
for ( var k in a ) {
if ( k in b ) { return k; }
}
return null;
}
var rowParse = d => {
d.date = new Date(Date.parse(d.date));
d.year = d.date.getUTCFullYear();
d.percent = d.percent ? +d.percent : d.percent;
return d;
};
d3.json('polls.json', polls => {
polls.forEach(d => {
var dt = new Date(Date.parse(d.date.published));
d.year = dt.getUTCFullYear();
});
d3.csv('election-results.csv', rowParse, data => {
y.domain([0, .5]);
x.domain(data.map(d => d.year).sort(d3.ascending));
plot(['Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn'], data, polls);
plot(['Framsóknarflokkurinn'], data, polls);
plot(['Samfylkingin'], data, polls);
plot(['Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð'], data, polls);
// plot(['Íslandshreyfingin', 'Borgarahreyfingin', 'Píratar'], data, polls);
// draw a legend
var svg = d3.select("body").append("svg")
.attr("width", (width + margin.left + margin.right)*2)
.attr("height", 50);
var legend = svg.selectAll('g')
.data([ 'Félagsvísindastofnun', 'Gallup', '365 miðlar',
'DV', 'PricewaterhouseCoopers', 'Blaðið', 'MMR' ])
.enter().append('g');
legend.append('text')
.text(String)
.call(sel => {
var offs = 0;
sel.each(function ( s ) {
d3.select(this.parentNode)
.attr('transform', `translate(${margin.left + offs},30)`);
offs += this.getComputedTextLength() + 30;
});
});
legend.append('circle')
.attr("class", "poll")
.attr("r", x.bandwidth() / 15)
.attr("cx", -x.bandwidth() / 7.5)
.attr("cy", -5)
.attr("fill", d => palette[d] || 'black');
});
});
function plot ( parties, data, polls ) {
var pset = {};
parties.forEach(d => pset[d] = 1);
var _data = data
.filter(d => d.party in pset)
.sort((a,b) => a.Year - b.Year);
var _polls = d3.nest()
.key(d => d.year)
.entries(polls.filter(d => commonKey(d.parties, pset)));
var svg = d3.select("body").append("svg")
.attr("width", width + margin.left + margin.right)
.attr("height", height + margin.top + margin.bottom)
.append("g")
.attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},${margin.top})`);
// axis
svg.append("g")
.attr("class", "axis axis-x")
.attr("transform", `translate(0,${height})`)
.call(d3.axisBottom(x).tickSize(3));
svg.append("g")
.attr("class", "axis axis-y")
.call(d3.axisLeft(y).tickSize(-width).ticks(5, "%"))
.selectAll('line')
.attr('class', d => d ? '' : 'zero');
// title
svg.append("text")
.attr("class", "title")
.attr("x", width/2)
.attr("y", -18)
.attr("dy", ".32em")
.attr("text-anchor", "middle")
.text(parties.join('; '));
// actual percentage of votes
svg.selectAll(".bar")
.data(_data).enter()
.append("rect")
.attr("class", "bar")
.attr("x", d => x(d.year) )
.attr("y", d => y(d.percent) )
.attr("width", x.bandwidth())
.attr("height", d => height - y(d.percent) );
// last poll by pollster before election
var polls = svg.selectAll(".polls")
.data(_data).enter()
.append("g")
.attr("class", "polls")
.attr("transform", d => `translate(${x(d.year)},0)`)
.selectAll(".poll").data(p => {
return polls.filter(d => {
return (commonKey(pset, d.parties) &&
d.year == p.year &&
d.made_by in palette);
})
.map((d, i, arr) => {
var b = x.bandwidth();
return {
'x': b / 2 + ( i + -( arr.length - 1) / 2 ) * b / 5,
'percent': d.parties[commonKey(d.parties, pset)],
'poll': d,
};
});
}).enter();
polls.append('path')
.attr("class", "err")
.attr("transform", d => `translate(${d.x},${y(d.percent)})`)
.attr("stroke", 'black')
.attr("d", d => {
if ( d.poll.sample_size ) {
var pop = d.poll.population,
n = 1 - ((pop.undecided_or_refuse || 0) + (pop.wont_or_blank || 0)),
ci = stderr95(d.percent, d.poll.sample_size * (d.poll.response_rate || 1) * n);
return `M0,-${height - y(ci)} L0,${height - y(ci)}`;
}
});
polls.append('circle')
.attr("class", d => (d.poll.sample_size ? "have-err " : "") + "poll")
.attr("r", x.bandwidth() / 15)
.attr("cx", d => d.x)
.attr("cy", d => y(d.percent))
.attr("fill", d => palette[d.poll.made_by] || 'black');
}
</script>
Raw
polls.json
[
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.376,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.211,
"Alþýðuflokkurinn": 0.106,
"Alþýðubandalagið": 0.128,
"Kvennalistinn": 0.0509,
"Þjóðvaki": 0.113
},
"date": {
"made": "1995-04-02/1995-04-04",
"published": "1995-04-07"
},
"made_by": "Félagsvísindastofnun",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1500,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.718,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.0559,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.365,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.22,
"Alþýðuflokkurinn": 0.115,
"Alþýðubandalagið": 0.11,
"Kvennalistinn": 0.06,
"Þjóðvaki": 0.099,
"Aðrir": 0.027
},
"date": {
"made": null,
"published": "1995-04-06"
},
"made_by": "Gallup",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1880,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.7,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.19,
"wont_or_blank": 0.044,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.362,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.196,
"Alþýðuflokkurinn": 0.111,
"Alþýðubandalagið": 0.153,
"Kvennalistinn": 0,
"Þjóðvaki": 0.096
},
"date": {
"made": "1995-04-05/1995-04-06",
"published": "1995-04-07"
},
"made_by": "Stöð 2 / Bylgjan",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1800,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.7,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.25,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Anarkistar á Íslandi": 0.001,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.211,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.029,
"Húmanistaflokkurinn": 0,
"Kristilegi lýðræðisflokkurinn": 0.002,
"Samfylkingin": 0.252,
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.428,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.077
},
"date": {
"made": "1999-05-06",
"published": "1999-05-07"
},
"made_by": "DV",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1200,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.697,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.303,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.18,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.025,
"Húmanistaflokkurinn": 0.003,
"Samfylkingin": 0.286,
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.419,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.0869
},
"date": {
"made": "1999-05-06",
"published": "1999-05-07"
},
"made_by": "Félagsvísindastofnun",
"made_for": "Morgunblaðið",
"sample_size": 1200,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.73,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.059,
"wont_or_blank": 0.016,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Anarkistar á Íslandi": 0,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.18,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.034,
"Húmanistaflokkurinn": 0.002,
"Kristilegi lýðræðisflokkurinn": 0,
"Samfylkingin": 0.273,
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.432,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.079
},
"date": {
"made": "1999-05-03/1999-05-04",
"published": "1999-05-04"
},
"made_by": "Gallup",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1000,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.71,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.165,
"wont_or_blank": 0.042,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Anarkistar á Íslandi": 0.002,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.17,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.008,
"Húmanistaflokkurinn": 0.01,
"Kristilegi lýðræðisflokkurinn": 0.002,
"Samfylkingin": 0.245,
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.492,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.0709
},
"date": {
"made": null,
"published": "1999-05-01"
},
"made_by": "PricewaterhouseCoopers",
"made_for": "Stöð 2",
"sample_size": 1100,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.7,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.33,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.264,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.117,
"Samfylkingin": 0.218,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.06,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.069,
"Nýtt afl": 0.008,
"Framboð óháðra í Suðurkjördæmi": 0.002
},
"date": {
"made": "2003-05-08",
"published": "2003-05-09"
},
"made_by": "DV",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 2500,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.738,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.262,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.327,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.1669,
"Samfylkingin": 0.326,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.08,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.089
},
"date": {
"made": "2003-05-07/2003-05-08",
"published": "2003-05-09"
},
"made_by": "Fréttablaðið",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 3000,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.91,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.145,
"wont_or_blank": 0.03,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.361,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.185,
"Samfylkingin": 0.2849,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.084,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.076,
"Nýtt afl": 0.009
},
"date": {
"made": "2003-05-05/2003-05-07",
"published": "2003-05-05"
},
"made_by": "Félagsvísindastofnun",
"made_for": "Morgunblaðið",
"sample_size": 1200,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.679,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.154,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.3439,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.161,
"Samfylkingin": 0.33,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.0709,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.084,
"Nýtt afl": 0.003,
"Framboð óháðra í Suðurkjördæmi": 0.008,
"T-listinn": 0.008
},
"date": {
"made": "2003-05-06/2003-05-07",
"published": "2003-05-08"
},
"made_by": "Gallup",
"made_for": "Ríkisútvarpið",
"sample_size": 800,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.67,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.18,
"wont_or_blank": 0.02,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.447,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.083,
"Samfylkingin": 0.253,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.1409,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.047,
"Íslandshreyfingin": 0.029
},
"date": {
"made": "2007-05-08/2007-05-09",
"published": "2007-05-11"
},
"made_by": "Blaðið",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 1040,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.861,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": 0.305,
"wont_or_blank": 0.035,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.424,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.091,
"Samfylkingin": 0.246,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.161,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.054,
"Íslandshreyfingin": 0.026
},
"date": {
"made": "2007-05-05/2007-05-09",
"published": "2007-05-11"
},
"made_by": "Fréttablaðið",
"made_for": null,
"sample_size": 3600,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": 0.64,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": null,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
"Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn": 0.36,
"Framsóknarflokkurinn": 0.103,
"Samfylkingin": 0.293,
"Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð": 0.155,
"Frjálslyndi flokkurinn": 0.057,
"Íslandshreyfingin": 0.032
},
"date": {
"made": "2007-05-07/2007-05-11",
"published": "2007-05-12"
},
"made_by": "Félagsvísindastofnun",
"made_for": "Stöð 2",
"sample_size": null,
"respondents": null,
"response_rate": null,
"population": {
"undecided_or_refuse": null,
"wont_or_blank": null,
"undecided": null,
"refuse_to_say": null,
"wont_vote": null,
"vote_blank": null
}
},
{
"parties": {
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