choct155 · August 29, 2015 14:09
diff --git a/README b/README
 # Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice: An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado

 **Presentation for [2014 National Tax Association Conference](http://www.ntanet.org/images/stories/pdf/nta_cot107th2014_web.pdf)**

 This talk will be given during the panel scheduled for 1:45 PM on Thursday, November 13th, 2014.  It covers preliminary research into the revelation of voter prefereces with respect to [tax and expenditure limitations in Colorado](http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1239165968612&ssbinary=true).  Specifically, the research asks whether or not exemption votes (i.e. ["de-Brucing"](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Bruce)) can be predicted from 1) [socioeconomic factors](http://censtats.census.gov/usa/usa.shtml) and 2) [ballot initiative components](http://ccionline.org/info-center-library/research-miscellaneous-publications/) (conditional on #1).

 ## Session Information

 **TOWARD A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCE INSTRUMENTS: EFFICIENCY AND IMPLICATIONS**

 **LOCATION:** PERALTA

 **Session Chair:** Daniel Mullins, American University

 State Retail Sales Tax Collection Gaps: Administrative Impact on Measured C-efficiency - 
 *John Mikesell, Indiana University*

 Consumers’ Share and Producers’ Share of the General Sales Tax - 
 *Kathryn Birkeland and Raymond Ring, Jr., University of South Dakota*

 Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice: An Analysis of Local Fiscal Behavior in Colorado - 
 *Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office*

 Local Sales Tax, Cross-Border Shopping, and Distance - 
 *Iksoo Cho, Nebraska Department of Revenue*

 **Discussants:** LeAnn Luna and Donald Bruce, University of Tennessee, 
 Knoxville
diff --git a/inde.Rmd b/inde.Rmd
 ---

 title       : Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice
 subtitle    : An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado
 author      : Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office
 job         : Analyst
 framework   : io2012        # {io2012, html5slides, shower, dzslides, ...}
 highlighter : highlight.js  # {highlight.js, prettify, highlight}
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 ## The Congressional Budget Office...

 ### ... has nothing to with this.

 <br>

 Any implications, opinions, or findings conveyed in this presentation are the author's, and the author's alone.  Not only does CBO not vouch for these findings, they barely condone me talking about them.

 <br>

 Official Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author's and should not be interpreted as CBO's.
 ==================== 



 ---

 ## Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?

 <br>
 **Spoiler:** This study does not provide the answer ... but it does explore the foundation.
 ==========

 <br>

 Before knowing whether TELs align the actions of elected officials and voter preferences, it would be helpful to know what voter preferences are.  Voter preferences can be partially revealed by understanding "de-Brucing."

 1. Can baseline exemption propensity be predicted via socioeconomic characteristics?
 2. What is the marginal impact of ballot design?
  
  


 --- &twocol

 *** =left
  
 ## What Do TELs Look Like in Colorado?
  
 ### Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR)
  + Voter approval required for tax increases;
  + Limit on the annual growth in revenue;
  + Creates obstacles for modification of existing limits; and,
  + Permits local overrides (i.e. DeBrucing).
  
 ### Gallagher Amendment (GA)
  + Holds constant the statewide residential share of property assessment value.
  
 *** =right

 ### Statewide Limit on Property Tax Revenue (SLPTR)
  + Restricts annual growth in property tax revenue to 5.5%.

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='500' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/CBO_Talk/master/TEL_intensity_2009.png />
 </div>

 ---

 ## Finances of General Purpose Jurisdictions in Colorado

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='400' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/CO_gen_juris_fin.png />
 </div>



 ---

 ## Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?

 + TELs are often passed with the voter assumption that service delivery need not change (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)
 + TELs reduce growth in tax revenue (Mullins & Joyce 1996)
 + Recent literature increasingly affirms this result (Ballal & Rubenstein 2009)
 + TELs increase reliance on miscellaneous revenue sources (Shadbegian 1999)
 + TELs increase reliance on state aid (Skidmore 1999)
 + TELs exacerbate fiscal stress during recessions (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)
 + TELs reduce local spending (Bails & Tieslau 2000)
 + TEL constraints are more binding on less affluent communities (Mullins 2004)

 --- &twocol

 ## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
 # Data (1993-2009)

 *** =left

 ### USA Counties Database
 + 521 variables
 + Data capture demographics, income, political attitudes, industrial base
 + Irregular reporting frequency across variables

 *** =right
 ### Colorado Counties, Inc.
 + Ballot-level indicators (e.g. requested property tax rate increase)
 + 527 votes


 --- &twocol

 ## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
 # Approach

 *** =left

 What's Wrong with Logistic Regression?

 !['Logistic Function'](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Logistic-curve.svg/320px-Logistic-curve.svg.png)

 + Distrbutional Assumptions
 + Linear Separating Hyperplane
 + Overlapping Groups

 *** =right 

 What are [Support Vector Machines](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3liCbRZPrZA)?

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='400' src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Kernel_Machine.png />
 </div>

 + High-Dimensional Performance
 + Overlap Accommodation
 + Post Hoc Processing for Probability
 + "Macro"" Processing for Interpretation

 ---
  
 ## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
 # Performance
  
  Classification Accuracy = 58.3%

 Probabilities were recoverable via Platt Scaling.

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='800' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/vote_probs.png />
 </div>


 ---
  
 ## What Role Does Ballot Design Play?
  
 Operationalizing Ballots
 + Revenue Source
 + Expenditure Target
 + Scope of Change

 Additional Variables of Interest
 + Propensity to Exempt
 + TABOR/SLPTR Constraint
 + Gallagher Ratio

 ---
  
 ## Results

 + There is considerable overlap in the classifier results, but the regression output highlights largely
 different aspects.

 + Proposals seeking to improve the function of government with commissions or studies
 (administrative) adversely impact the likelihood of passage.

 + Proposals that do not extend spending authority (no waiver) are statistically significant across
 models, but the signs of the effect differ across the classification and regression approaches.
 + The same could be said of restricting funding sources to non-property revenues
 (ss_nonproperty).

 + Open ended spending targets (open) are clear drivers of the classification results, but figure only
 modestly in the regression approach.
 + Changes to sales tax rates (sales_change) are consistently negative, but lack substantive
 significance. The same could be said of public safety (public_safety) and changes to the
 property tax rate (prop_change).

 ---

 ## Questions?

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='200' src=http://www.codeinstitute.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/python-logo.png />
  <img width='200' src=http://ipython.org/_images/9_home_fperez_prof_grants_1207-sloan-ipython_proposal_fig_ipython-notebook-specgram.png />
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    <h1>Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice</h1>
    <h2>An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado</h2>
    <p>Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office<br/>Analyst</p>
  </hgroup>
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 <h2>The Congressional Budget Office...</h2>

 <h3>... has nothing to with this.</h3>

 <p><br></p>

 <p>Any implications, opinions, or findings conveyed in this presentation are the author&#39;s, and the author&#39;s alone.  Not only does CBO not vouch for these findings, they barely condone me talking about them.</p>

 <p><br></p>

 <h1>Official Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author&#39;s and should not be interpreted as CBO&#39;s.</h1>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-2" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <p><br></p>

 <h1><strong>Spoiler:</strong> This study does not provide the answer ... but it does explore the foundation.</h1>

 <p><br></p>

 <p>Before knowing whether TELs align the actions of elected officials and voter preferences, it would be helpful to know what voter preferences are.  Voter preferences can be partially revealed by understanding &quot;de-Brucing.&quot;</p>

 <ol>
 <li>Can baseline exemption propensity be predicted via socioeconomic characteristics?</li>
 <li>What is the marginal impact of ballot design?</li>
 </ol>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-3" style="background:;">
  <article data-timings="">
    
 <div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
  <h2>What Do TELs Look Like in Colorado?</h2>

 <h3>Taxpayer&#39;s Bill of Rights (TABOR)</h3>

 <ul>
 <li>Voter approval required for tax increases;</li>
 <li>Limit on the annual growth in revenue;</li>
 <li>Creates obstacles for modification of existing limits; and,</li>
 <li>Permits local overrides (i.e. DeBrucing).</li>
 </ul>

 <h3>Gallagher Amendment (GA)</h3>

 <ul>
 <li>Holds constant the statewide residential share of property assessment value.</li>
 </ul>

 </div>
 <div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
  <h3>Statewide Limit on Property Tax Revenue (SLPTR)</h3>

 <ul>
 <li>Restricts annual growth in property tax revenue to 5.5%.</li>
 </ul>

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='500' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/CBO_Talk/master/TEL_intensity_2009.png />
 </div>

 </div>
  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-4" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Finances of General Purpose Jurisdictions in Colorado</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='400' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/CO_gen_juris_fin.png />
 </div>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-5" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <ul>
 <li>TELs are often passed with the voter assumption that service delivery need not change (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li>
 <li>TELs reduce growth in tax revenue (Mullins &amp; Joyce 1996)</li>
 <li>Recent literature increasingly affirms this result (Ballal &amp; Rubenstein 2009)</li>
 <li>TELs increase reliance on miscellaneous revenue sources (Shadbegian 1999)</li>
 <li>TELs increase reliance on state aid (Skidmore 1999)</li>
 <li>TELs exacerbate fiscal stress during recessions (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li>
 <li>TELs reduce local spending (Bails &amp; Tieslau 2000)</li>
 <li>TEL constraints are more binding on less affluent communities (Mullins 2004)</li>
 </ul>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-6" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <h1>Data (1993-2009)</h1>

 <div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
  <h3>USA Counties Database</h3>

 <ul>
 <li>521 variables</li>
 <li>Data capture demographics, income, political attitudes, industrial base</li>
 <li>Irregular reporting frequency across variables</li>
 </ul>

 </div>
 <div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
  <h3>Colorado Counties, Inc.</h3>

 <ul>
 <li>Ballot-level indicators (e.g. requested property tax rate increase)</li>
 <li>527 votes</li>
 </ul>

 </div>
  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-7" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <h1>Approach</h1>

 <div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
  <p>What&#39;s Wrong with Logistic Regression?</p>

 <p><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Logistic-curve.svg/320px-Logistic-curve.svg.png" alt="&#39;Logistic Function&#39;"></p>

 <ul>
 <li>Distrbutional Assumptions</li>
 <li>Linear Separating Hyperplane</li>
 <li>Overlapping Groups</li>
 </ul>

 </div>
 <div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
  <p>What are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3liCbRZPrZA">Support Vector Machines</a>?</p>

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='400' src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Kernel_Machine.png />
 </div>

 <ul>
 <li>High-Dimensional Performance</li>
 <li>Overlap Accommodation</li>
 <li>Post Hoc Processing for Probability</li>
 <li>&quot;Macro&quot;&quot; Processing for Interpretation</li>
 </ul>

 </div>
  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-8" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <h1>Performance</h1>

 <p>Classification Accuracy = 58.3%</p>

 <p>Probabilities were recoverable via Platt Scaling.</p>

 <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='800' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/vote_probs.png />
 </div>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-9" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>What Role Does Ballot Design Play?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <p>Operationalizing Ballots</p>

 <ul>
 <li>Revenue Source</li>
 <li>Expenditure Target</li>
 <li>Scope of Change</li>
 </ul>

 <p>Additional Variables of Interest</p>

 <ul>
 <li>Propensity to Exempt</li>
 <li>TABOR/SLPTR Constraint</li>
 <li>Gallagher Ratio</li>
 </ul>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-10" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Results</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <ul>
 <li><p>There is considerable overlap in the classifier results, but the regression output highlights largely
 different aspects.</p></li>
 <li><p>Proposals seeking to improve the function of government with commissions or studies
 (administrative) adversely impact the likelihood of passage.</p></li>
 <li><p>Proposals that do not extend spending authority (no waiver) are statistically significant across
 models, but the signs of the effect differ across the classification and regression approaches.</p></li>
 <li><p>The same could be said of restricting funding sources to non-property revenues
 (ss_nonproperty).</p></li>
 <li><p>Open ended spending targets (open) are clear drivers of the classification results, but figure only
 modestly in the regression approach.</p></li>
 <li><p>Changes to sales tax rates (sales_change) are consistently negative, but lack substantive
 significance. The same could be said of public safety (public_safety) and changes to the
 property tax rate (prop_change).</p></li>
 </ul>

  </article>
  <!-- Presenter Notes -->
 </slide>

 <slide class="" id="slide-11" style="background:;">
  <hgroup>
    <h2>Questions?</h2>
  </hgroup>
  <article data-timings="">
    <div style='text-align: center;'>
  <img width='400' src=http://www.codeinstitute.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/python-logo.png />
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 </slide>

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         1
      </a>
    </li>
    <li>
      <a href="#" target="_self" rel='tooltip' 
        data-slide=2 title='Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?'>
         2
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         4
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    <li>
      <a href="#" target="_self" rel='tooltip' 
        data-slide=5 title='Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?'>
         5
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    <li>
      <a href="#" target="_self" rel='tooltip' 
        data-slide=6 title='Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?'>
         6
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      <a href="#" target="_self" rel='tooltip' 
        data-slide=7 title='Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?'>
         7
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         8
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         9
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	# Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice: An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado

	Presentation for [2014 National Tax Association Conference](http://www.ntanet.org/images/stories/pdf/nta_cot107th2014_web.pdf)

	This talk will be given during the panel scheduled for 1:45 PM on Thursday, November 13th, 2014. It covers preliminary research into the revelation of voter prefereces with respect to [tax and expenditure limitations in Colorado](http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1239165968612&ssbinary=true). Specifically, the research asks whether or not exemption votes (i.e. ["de-Brucing"](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Bruce)) can be predicted from 1) [socioeconomic factors](http://censtats.census.gov/usa/usa.shtml) and 2) [ballot initiative components](http://ccionline.org/info-center-library/research-miscellaneous-publications/) (conditional on #1).

	## Session Information

	TOWARD A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC FINANCE INSTRUMENTS: EFFICIENCY AND IMPLICATIONS

	LOCATION: PERALTA

	Session Chair: Daniel Mullins, American University

	State Retail Sales Tax Collection Gaps: Administrative Impact on Measured C-efficiency -
	John Mikesell, Indiana University

	Consumers’ Share and Producers’ Share of the General Sales Tax -
	Kathryn Birkeland and Raymond Ring, Jr., University of South Dakota

	Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice: An Analysis of Local Fiscal Behavior in Colorado -
	Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office

	Local Sales Tax, Cross-Border Shopping, and Distance -
	Iksoo Cho, Nebraska Department of Revenue

	Discussants: LeAnn Luna and Donald Bruce, University of Tennessee,
	Knoxville
	---

	title : Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice
	subtitle : An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado
	author : Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office
	job : Analyst
	framework : io2012 # {io2012, html5slides, shower, dzslides, ...}
	highlighter : highlight.js # {highlight.js, prettify, highlight}
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	## The Congressional Budget Office...

	### ... has nothing to with this.

	<br>

	Any implications, opinions, or findings conveyed in this presentation are the author's, and the author's alone. Not only does CBO not vouch for these findings, they barely condone me talking about them.

	<br>

	Official Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author's and should not be interpreted as CBO's.
	====================



	---

	## Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?

	<br>
	Spoiler: This study does not provide the answer ... but it does explore the foundation.
	==========

	<br>

	Before knowing whether TELs align the actions of elected officials and voter preferences, it would be helpful to know what voter preferences are. Voter preferences can be partially revealed by understanding "de-Brucing."

	1. Can baseline exemption propensity be predicted via socioeconomic characteristics?
	2. What is the marginal impact of ballot design?




	--- &twocol

	*** =left

	## What Do TELs Look Like in Colorado?

	### Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR)
	+ Voter approval required for tax increases;
	+ Limit on the annual growth in revenue;
	+ Creates obstacles for modification of existing limits; and,
	+ Permits local overrides (i.e. DeBrucing).

	### Gallagher Amendment (GA)
	+ Holds constant the statewide residential share of property assessment value.

	*** =right

	### Statewide Limit on Property Tax Revenue (SLPTR)
	+ Restricts annual growth in property tax revenue to 5.5%.

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='500' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/CBO_Talk/master/TEL_intensity_2009.png />
	</div>

	---

	## Finances of General Purpose Jurisdictions in Colorado

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='400' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/CO_gen_juris_fin.png />
	</div>



	---

	## Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?

	+ TELs are often passed with the voter assumption that service delivery need not change (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)
	+ TELs reduce growth in tax revenue (Mullins & Joyce 1996)
	+ Recent literature increasingly affirms this result (Ballal & Rubenstein 2009)
	+ TELs increase reliance on miscellaneous revenue sources (Shadbegian 1999)
	+ TELs increase reliance on state aid (Skidmore 1999)
	+ TELs exacerbate fiscal stress during recessions (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)
	+ TELs reduce local spending (Bails & Tieslau 2000)
	+ TEL constraints are more binding on less affluent communities (Mullins 2004)

	--- &twocol

	## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
	# Data (1993-2009)

	*** =left

	### USA Counties Database
	+ 521 variables
	+ Data capture demographics, income, political attitudes, industrial base
	+ Irregular reporting frequency across variables

	*** =right
	### Colorado Counties, Inc.
	+ Ballot-level indicators (e.g. requested property tax rate increase)
	+ 527 votes


	--- &twocol

	## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
	# Approach

	*** =left

	What's Wrong with Logistic Regression?

	!['Logistic Function'](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Logistic-curve.svg/320px-Logistic-curve.svg.png)

	+ Distrbutional Assumptions
	+ Linear Separating Hyperplane
	+ Overlapping Groups

	*** =right

	What are [Support Vector Machines](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3liCbRZPrZA)?

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='400' src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Kernel_Machine.png />
	</div>

	+ High-Dimensional Performance
	+ Overlap Accommodation
	+ Post Hoc Processing for Probability
	+ "Macro"" Processing for Interpretation

	---

	## Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?
	# Performance

	Classification Accuracy = 58.3%

	Probabilities were recoverable via Platt Scaling.

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='800' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/vote_probs.png />
	</div>


	---

	## What Role Does Ballot Design Play?

	Operationalizing Ballots
	+ Revenue Source
	+ Expenditure Target
	+ Scope of Change

	Additional Variables of Interest
	+ Propensity to Exempt
	+ TABOR/SLPTR Constraint
	+ Gallagher Ratio

	---

	## Results

	+ There is considerable overlap in the classifier results, but the regression output highlights largely
	different aspects.

	+ Proposals seeking to improve the function of government with commissions or studies
	(administrative) adversely impact the likelihood of passage.

	+ Proposals that do not extend spending authority (no waiver) are statistically significant across
	models, but the signs of the effect differ across the classification and regression approaches.
	+ The same could be said of restricting funding sources to non-property revenues
	(ss_nonproperty).

	+ Open ended spending targets (open) are clear drivers of the classification results, but figure only
	modestly in the regression approach.
	+ Changes to sales tax rates (sales_change) are consistently negative, but lack substantive
	significance. The same could be said of public safety (public_safety) and changes to the
	property tax rate (prop_change).

	---

	## Questions?

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='200' src=http://www.codeinstitute.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/python-logo.png />
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	<h1>Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice</h1>
	<h2>An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado</h2>
	<p>Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office<br/>Analyst</p>
	</hgroup>
	<article></article>
	</slide>


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	<h2>The Congressional Budget Office...</h2>

	<h3>... has nothing to with this.</h3>

	<p><br></p>

	<p>Any implications, opinions, or findings conveyed in this presentation are the author's, and the author's alone. Not only does CBO not vouch for these findings, they barely condone me talking about them.</p>

	<p><br></p>

	<h1>Official Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author's and should not be interpreted as CBO's.</h1>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-2" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<p><br></p>

	<h1><strong>Spoiler:</strong> This study does not provide the answer ... but it does explore the foundation.</h1>

	<p><br></p>

	<p>Before knowing whether TELs align the actions of elected officials and voter preferences, it would be helpful to know what voter preferences are. Voter preferences can be partially revealed by understanding "de-Brucing."</p>

	<ol>
	<li>Can baseline exemption propensity be predicted via socioeconomic characteristics?</li>
	<li>What is the marginal impact of ballot design?</li>
	</ol>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-3" style="background:;">
	<article data-timings="">

	<div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
	<h2>What Do TELs Look Like in Colorado?</h2>

	<h3>Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR)</h3>

	<ul>
	<li>Voter approval required for tax increases;</li>
	<li>Limit on the annual growth in revenue;</li>
	<li>Creates obstacles for modification of existing limits; and,</li>
	<li>Permits local overrides (i.e. DeBrucing).</li>
	</ul>

	<h3>Gallagher Amendment (GA)</h3>

	<ul>
	<li>Holds constant the statewide residential share of property assessment value.</li>
	</ul>

	</div>
	<div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
	<h3>Statewide Limit on Property Tax Revenue (SLPTR)</h3>

	<ul>
	<li>Restricts annual growth in property tax revenue to 5.5%.</li>
	</ul>

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='500' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/CBO_Talk/master/TEL_intensity_2009.png />
	</div>

	</div>
	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-4" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Finances of General Purpose Jurisdictions in Colorado</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='400' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/CO_gen_juris_fin.png />
	</div>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-5" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<ul>
	<li>TELs are often passed with the voter assumption that service delivery need not change (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li>
	<li>TELs reduce growth in tax revenue (Mullins & Joyce 1996)</li>
	<li>Recent literature increasingly affirms this result (Ballal & Rubenstein 2009)</li>
	<li>TELs increase reliance on miscellaneous revenue sources (Shadbegian 1999)</li>
	<li>TELs increase reliance on state aid (Skidmore 1999)</li>
	<li>TELs exacerbate fiscal stress during recessions (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li>
	<li>TELs reduce local spending (Bails & Tieslau 2000)</li>
	<li>TEL constraints are more binding on less affluent communities (Mullins 2004)</li>
	</ul>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-6" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<h1>Data (1993-2009)</h1>

	<div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
	<h3>USA Counties Database</h3>

	<ul>
	<li>521 variables</li>
	<li>Data capture demographics, income, political attitudes, industrial base</li>
	<li>Irregular reporting frequency across variables</li>
	</ul>

	</div>
	<div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
	<h3>Colorado Counties, Inc.</h3>

	<ul>
	<li>Ballot-level indicators (e.g. requested property tax rate increase)</li>
	<li>527 votes</li>
	</ul>

	</div>
	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-7" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<h1>Approach</h1>

	<div style='float:left;width:48%;' class='centered'>
	<p>What's Wrong with Logistic Regression?</p>

	<p><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Logistic-curve.svg/320px-Logistic-curve.svg.png" alt="'Logistic Function'"></p>

	<ul>
	<li>Distrbutional Assumptions</li>
	<li>Linear Separating Hyperplane</li>
	<li>Overlapping Groups</li>
	</ul>

	</div>
	<div style='float:right;width:48%;'>
	<p>What are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3liCbRZPrZA">Support Vector Machines</a>?</p>

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='400' src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Kernel_Machine.png />
	</div>

	<ul>
	<li>High-Dimensional Performance</li>
	<li>Overlap Accommodation</li>
	<li>Post Hoc Processing for Probability</li>
	<li>"Macro"" Processing for Interpretation</li>
	</ul>

	</div>
	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-8" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<h1>Performance</h1>

	<p>Classification Accuracy = 58.3%</p>

	<p>Probabilities were recoverable via Platt Scaling.</p>

	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='800' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/vote_probs.png />
	</div>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-9" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>What Role Does Ballot Design Play?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<p>Operationalizing Ballots</p>

	<ul>
	<li>Revenue Source</li>
	<li>Expenditure Target</li>
	<li>Scope of Change</li>
	</ul>

	<p>Additional Variables of Interest</p>

	<ul>
	<li>Propensity to Exempt</li>
	<li>TABOR/SLPTR Constraint</li>
	<li>Gallagher Ratio</li>
	</ul>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-10" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Results</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<ul>
	<li><p>There is considerable overlap in the classifier results, but the regression output highlights largely
	different aspects.</p></li>
	<li><p>Proposals seeking to improve the function of government with commissions or studies
	(administrative) adversely impact the likelihood of passage.</p></li>
	<li><p>Proposals that do not extend spending authority (no waiver) are statistically significant across
	models, but the signs of the effect differ across the classification and regression approaches.</p></li>
	<li><p>The same could be said of restricting funding sources to non-property revenues
	(ss_nonproperty).</p></li>
	<li><p>Open ended spending targets (open) are clear drivers of the classification results, but figure only
	modestly in the regression approach.</p></li>
	<li><p>Changes to sales tax rates (sales_change) are consistently negative, but lack substantive
	significance. The same could be said of public safety (public_safety) and changes to the
	property tax rate (prop_change).</p></li>
	</ul>

	</article>
	<!-- Presenter Notes -->
	</slide>

	<slide class="" id="slide-11" style="background:;">
	<hgroup>
	<h2>Questions?</h2>
	</hgroup>
	<article data-timings="">
	<div style='text-align: center;'>
	<img width='400' src=http://www.codeinstitute.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/python-logo.png />
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