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<h1>Institutional Implications for Revenue Choice</h1> |
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<h2>An Analysis of Fiscal Behavior in Colorado</h2> |
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<p>Marvin Ward Jr., Congressional Budget Office<br/>Analyst</p> |
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<h2>The Congressional Budget Office...</h2> |
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<h3>... has nothing to with this.</h3> |
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<p><br></p> |
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<p>Any implications, opinions, or findings conveyed in this presentation are the author's, and the author's alone. Not only does CBO not vouch for these findings, they barely condone me talking about them.</p> |
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<p><br></p> |
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<h1>Official Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author's and should not be interpreted as CBO's.</h1> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-2" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Strengthen Fiscal Federalism?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<p><br></p> |
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<h1><strong>Spoiler:</strong> This study does not provide the answer ... but it does explore the foundation.</h1> |
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<p><br></p> |
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<p>Before knowing whether TELs align the actions of elected officials and voter preferences, it would be helpful to know what voter preferences are. Voter preferences can be partially revealed by understanding "de-Brucing."</p> |
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<ol> |
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<li>Can baseline exemption propensity be predicted via socioeconomic characteristics?</li> |
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<li>What is the marginal impact of ballot design?</li> |
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</ol> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-3"> |
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<article> |
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<hr noshade size=4 color='red'> |
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<div class='left' style='float:left;width:48%'> |
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<h2>What Do TELs Look Like in Colorado?</h2> |
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<h3>Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR)</h3> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Voter approval required for tax increases;</li> |
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<li>Limit on the annual growth in revenue;</li> |
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<li>Creates obstacles for modification of existing limits; and,</li> |
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<li>Permits local overrides (i.e. DeBrucing).</li> |
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</ul> |
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<h3>Gallagher Amendment (GA)</h3> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Holds constant the statewide residential share of property assessment value.</li> |
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</ul> |
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</div> |
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<div class='right' style='float:right;width:48%'> |
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<h3>Statewide Limit on Property Tax Revenue (SLPTR)</h3> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Restricts annual growth in property tax revenue to 5.5%.</li> |
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</ul> |
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<div style='text-align: center;'> |
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<img width='500' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/CBO_Talk/master/TEL_intensity_2009.png /> |
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</div> |
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</div> |
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</article> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-4" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Finances of General Purpose Jurisdictions in Colorado</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<div style='text-align: center;'> |
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<img width='400' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/CO_gen_juris_fin.png /> |
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</div> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-5" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Do TELs Alter Fiscal Behavior?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<ul> |
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<li>TELs are often passed with the voter assumption that service delivery need not change (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li> |
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<li>TELs reduce growth in tax revenue (Mullins & Joyce 1996)</li> |
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<li>Recent literature increasingly affirms this result (Ballal & Rubenstein 2009)</li> |
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<li>TELs increase reliance on miscellaneous revenue sources (Shadbegian 1999)</li> |
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<li>TELs increase reliance on state aid (Skidmore 1999)</li> |
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<li>TELs exacerbate fiscal stress during recessions (Cutler, Elmendorf, Zeckhauser 1997)</li> |
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<li>TELs reduce local spending (Bails & Tieslau 2000)</li> |
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<li>TEL constraints are more binding on less affluent communities (Mullins 2004)</li> |
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</ul> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-6"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article> |
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<hr noshade size=4 color='red'> |
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<h1>Data (1993-2009)</h1> |
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<div class='left' style='float:left;width:48%'> |
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<h3>USA Counties Database</h3> |
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<ul> |
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<li>521 variables</li> |
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<li>Data capture demographics, income, political attitudes, industrial base</li> |
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<li>Irregular reporting frequency across variables</li> |
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</ul> |
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</div> |
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<div class='right' style='float:right;width:48%'> |
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<h3>Colorado Counties, Inc.</h3> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Ballot-level indicators (e.g. requested property tax rate increase)</li> |
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<li>527 votes</li> |
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</ul> |
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</article> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-7"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article> |
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<hr noshade size=4 color='red'> |
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<h1>Approach</h1> |
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<div class='left' style='float:left;width:48%'> |
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<p>What's Wrong with Logistic Regression?</p> |
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<p><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Logistic-curve.svg/320px-Logistic-curve.svg.png" alt="'Logistic Function'"></p> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Distrbutional Assumptions</li> |
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<li>Linear Separating Hyperplane</li> |
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<li>Overlapping Groups</li> |
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</ul> |
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</div> |
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<div class='right' style='float:right;width:48%'> |
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<p>What are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3liCbRZPrZA">Support Vector Machines</a>?</p> |
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<div style='text-align: center;'> |
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<img width='400' src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Kernel_Machine.png /> |
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<li>High-Dimensional Performance</li> |
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<li>Overlap Accommodation</li> |
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<li>Post Hoc Processing for Probability</li> |
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<li>"Macro"" Processing for Interpretation</li> |
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</ul> |
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</article> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-8" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Can Exemption Be Predicted with Socioeconomic Indicators?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<h1>Performance</h1> |
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<p>Classification Accuracy = 58.3%</p> |
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<p>Probabilities were recoverable via Platt Scaling.</p> |
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<div style='text-align: center;'> |
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<img width='800' src=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/choct155/NTA2014/master/vote_probs.png /> |
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</div> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-9" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>What Role Does Ballot Design Play?</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<p>Operationalizing Ballots</p> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Revenue Source</li> |
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<li>Expenditure Target</li> |
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<li>Scope of Change</li> |
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</ul> |
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<p>Additional Variables of Interest</p> |
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<ul> |
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<li>Propensity to Exempt</li> |
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<li>TABOR/SLPTR Constraint</li> |
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<li>Gallagher Ratio</li> |
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</ul> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<slide class="" id="slide-10" style="background:;"> |
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<hgroup> |
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<h2>Results</h2> |
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</hgroup> |
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<article data-timings=""> |
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<ul> |
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<li><p>There is considerable overlap in the classifier results, but the regression output highlights largely |
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different aspects.</p></li> |
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<li><p>Proposals seeking to improve the function of government with commissions or studies |
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(administrative) adversely impact the likelihood of passage.</p></li> |
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<li><p>Proposals that do not extend spending authority (no waiver) are statistically significant across |
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models, but the signs of the effect differ across the classification and regression approaches.</p></li> |
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<li><p>The same could be said of restricting funding sources to non-property revenues |
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(ss_nonproperty).</p></li> |
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<li><p>Open ended spending targets (open) are clear drivers of the classification results, but figure only |
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modestly in the regression approach.</p></li> |
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<li><p>Changes to sales tax rates (sales_change) are consistently negative, but lack substantive |
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significance. The same could be said of public safety (public_safety) and changes to the |
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property tax rate (prop_change).</p></li> |
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</ul> |
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</article> |
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<!-- Presenter Notes --> |
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</slide> |
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<h2>Questions?</h2> |
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