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Created September 9, 2014 13:56
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statistical significance of number of CEOs hired internally
Raw
README.md

When I saw this on twitter, it really made me wonder whether the reported statistics had any significance. Based on the numbers reported, I wrote a quick little program to estimate the 95% confidence interval of the percent of CEOs hired internally. Alongside each regions name is the lower and upper cutoff on the 95% confidence interval.

[unix]$ python simulate.py
          USA/Canada	0.679	0.859
      Western Europe	0.625	0.854
               Japan	0.897	1.000
        Other mature	0.565	0.826
               China	0.710	0.968
Brazil, Russia, India	0.517	0.828
      Other emerging	0.360	0.720

Although Japan looks vastly different in the picture, we can not (yet) say that it is statistically different than China because the confidence intervals for those two regions overlap. Japan does have a significantly higher percentage of CEOs hired internally when compared with all other regions.

All other countries and regions, however, can not (yet) be differentiated because the confidence intervals of all other countries overlap.

Perhaps we can draw other conclusions when more data becomes available. But with the data presented so far, the only thing we can say is that Japan's CEOs tend to be hired internally more frequently than everywhere in the world, except for China.

Raw
simulate.py
"""Quick error analysis using Monte Carlo bootstrapping techniques to
test the statistical significance of the observations tweeted here:
https://twitter.com/Shogannai/status/509176510880575488
"""
import random
import collections
def error_bars(n_internal_ceos, n_ceos):
"""estimate the error in the reported percent of internally hired CEOs
to identify which regions have statistically different
results. This uses a Bootstrap Monte Carlo approach to estimate
the 95% confidence interval.
"""
# # if you were a good Bayesian, you'd account for your prior
# # knowledge here in some way. In the absense of any information
# # (no observations), I'd guess that half of CEOs come from inside
# # a company
# p_internal_expected = (n_internal_ceos + 1.0) / (n_ceos + 2.0)
# its pretty clear that this is how the percentage of internally
# hired CEOs is calculated though, so I'll just go with
# this. Switching this for the previous block of code doesn't
# change things in any way
p_internal_expected = float(n_internal_ceos) / n_ceos
# Simulate 10,000 "alternate universes" where CEOs are hired
# internally at a rate that is consistent with what you can
# expect. We're going to count the number of times we observe each
# discrete observation to determine the error in our estimate of
# p_internal_expected above
n_internal_estimated = collections.Counter()
n_simulations = 10000
for simulation in range(n_simulations):
n_internal = 0
for ceo in range(n_ceos):
if random.random() < p_internal_expected:
n_internal += 1
n_internal_estimated[n_internal] += 1
# find the 95% confidence interval by starting at the mode of this
# distribution and adding mass in a steepest decent kind of way
n_internal_mode, count = n_internal_estimated.most_common(1)[0]
below = above = n_internal_mode
while float(count) / n_simulations < 0.95:
if n_internal_estimated[below-1] > n_internal_estimated[above+1]:
count += n_internal_estimated[below-1]
below -= 1
else:
count += n_internal_estimated[above+1]
above += 1
return float(below)/n_ceos, float(above)/n_ceos, float(count)/n_simulations
def print_result(country, error):
"""quick function to print results in a pretty way"""
print "%20s\t%0.3f\t%0.3f" % (
country,
error[0],
error[1],
)
# Based on the figure, I back calculated the number of internally
# hired CEOs. The output below shows the error bars expected from this
# analysis
print_result( "USA/Canada", error_bars(60, 78) )
print_result( "Western Europe", error_bars(36, 48) )
print_result( "Japan", error_bars(28, 29) )
print_result( "Other mature", error_bars(32, 46) )
print_result( "China", error_bars(26, 31) )
print_result( "Brazil, Russia, India", error_bars(20, 29) )
print_result( "Other emerging", error_bars(14, 25) )
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