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fasiha/so.py

Last active January 19, 2024 23:30
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Fitting my Stack Overflow points history to specific sections of time. Growth from early 2020 to mid-2021 was solid, slowed by 30-ish percent by mid-2022, then dropped 50% since mid-2022 till now (early 2024). See https://octodon.social/@22/111682452808811056
Raw
so.py
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import pylab as plt
from numpy.polynomial import Polynomial
plt.style.use("ggplot")
plt.ion()
# this is the min/max points in my line chart on my profile page
rawMin = 4.9e3
rawMax = 6.6e3
# this is raw data from the SVG line path in my profile page
raw = [
[0, 49],
[0.11857436600411242, 49],
[0.23714873200822484, 49],
[0.3557230980123372, 49],
[0.4742974640164497, 49],
[0.5928718300205621, 48.713432835820896],
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[0.9485949280328994, 48.42686567164179],
[1.0671692940370117, 48.42686567164179],
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# convert SVG y-coordinates to points
p = Polynomial.fit([49, 0], [rawMin, rawMax], deg=1)
y = [p(x[1]) for x in raw]
# remove sudden drops due to me offering bounties
diff = np.diff(y)
diff[diff < -40] = 0 # median
# this is the bounty-offer-free points
newy = y[0] + np.cumsum(diff)
def ago(n):
return datetime.now() + timedelta(days=n)
dtfmt = lambda dt: f"{dt.year:04d}-{dt.month:02d}-{dt.day:02d}"
# each point in the SVG appears to be a day, convenient!
t = sorted([ago(-x) for x in range(len(diff), 0, -1)])
# We'll call this for each sub-section
def linearfit(start, end, t, y):
p = Polynomial.fit(np.arange(start, end), y[start:end], deg=1)
ynew = [p(x) for x in range(len(t))]
slope = p(1) - p(0)
label = f"{dtfmt(t[start])} to {dtfmt(t[end-1])} ({slope:.2f} points/day)"
plt.plot(t, ynew, alpha=0.5, linewidth=3, label=label)
# plot the entire raw points data
plt.close("all")
plt.figure()
plt.plot(t, newy, "k-", label="Raw (ignoring offered bounties)")
plt.ylabel("Stack Overflow points")
# now fit sub-sections
linearfit(0, sum(newy <= 6000), t, newy)
linearfit(sum(newy <= 6200), sum(newy < 6600), t, newy)
linearfit(sum(newy <= 6700), sum(newy < 6850), t, newy)
linearfit(sum(newy <= 7000), sum(newy < 100000), t, newy)
# cleanup and save
plt.legend()
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig("so.png", dpi=300)
@fasiha
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fasiha commented Jan 19, 2024

Taking the plot of Stack Overflow points over the last four years (early-2020 to early-2024) from https://stackoverflow.com/users/500207/ahmed-fasih I can eye-ball kind of four different regimes of growth:

  1. early 2020 to mid-2021, a solid 1.5 years, my passive Stack Overflow points grew 2.2-ish points per day
  2. from mid-2021 to mid-2022, it slowed a bit 1.5 points per day
  3. Then starting mid-2022, it dropped considerably, almost by 50%: mid-2022 to late 2022 I was at 0.8 points per day: this is still pre-ChatGPT which came out November 2022!
  4. Then early-2023 to now (early 2024) growth continues to be very anemic at 0.75 points per day (this is firmly in the ChatGPT era)

Line graph demonstrating the above visually

@fasiha
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fasiha commented Jan 19, 2024 •
edited

EDIT https://stackoverflow.blog/2023/08/08/insights-into-stack-overflows-traffic/ has explained that the endpoint this data was derived from was serving incorrect data that didn't account for changes in Google Analytics and cookie correction and that goes into details about the small drops in traffic they're actually seeing due to pandemic easing and LLMs

Compare to the following chart of Stack Overflow page views from April 2018 to July 2023 via https://mastodon.uno/@brozu/110774114961885559 → https://observablehq.com/d/f226338221f63d6b → https://stackoverflow.com/site-analytics (requires 25k points)

a line graph from April 2018 to July 2023, with y axis from 0 to 20 million, showing a line that wobbles between 18 and 20 million from the start to about April 2022 (no typo, 2022, not 2023) to 14 million where it plateaued till October 2022. Since then it’s been in freefall and is at 8 million at July 2023

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