johnpoole · June 12, 2022 13:56
diff --git a/bracket2017.js b/bracket2017.js

 var JASON_COLOUR = "#f79620";
 //field position constants;
 //PICKS fields
 var YEAR = "2022";
 var NAME_COLUMN=15;
 var DATA_START=2;
 var NUMBER_OF_PICKS=7;
 var PROB_COLUMN=17;	

 var picks;
 var sharedOdds = true;
 var games;
 var div = d3.select("body").append("div")	
    .attr("class", "tooltip")				
    .style("opacity", 0);
 	

 readGames();

 function readGames(){
 	d3.text("games"+YEAR+".csv", function(text){
 		games = d3.csv.parseRows(text)
 		readPicks();
 	});
 }

 function readPicks(){
 	d3.text("picks"+YEAR+".csv", function(data) {
 		var oldpicks = d3.csv.parseRows(data);
 		picks = [];
 		oldpicks.forEach( function(d){
 			d = d.slice(0,17);
 			d.push(0); //probability column

 			picks.push(d);
 		});
 		readSimulations(picks);
 	});
 }
 var probMap = {};

 function readSimulations(picks){
 	d3.csv("simulations_recent.csv", function(probabilities) {
 		 probabilities = [].map.call(probabilities.filter(function(d){ 
 			return  d.scenerio == "ALL" //d.madePlayoffs === "1" &&
 		}), function(row) {
 			var probGame = [];
 			probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin4) + Number(row.round3Lossin4));
 			probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin5) + Number(row.round3Lossin5));
 			probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin6) + Number(row.round3Lossin7));
 			probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin7)+ Number(row.round3Lossin7));
 			var wins = [];
 			wins.push( Number(row.round2));
 			wins.push( Number(row.round3));
 			wins.push( Number(row.round4));
 			wins.push( Number(row.wonCup));
 			return {
 			 gamesHome: 3,//Number(gameText[0]),
 			 gamesAway: 2,//Number(gameText[1]),
 			 gameNumChance: probGame,
 			 team: row.teamCode,
 			 win:wins
 			};		
 		});
 		probabilities.forEach(p=> probMap[p.team] = p.win);
 		//expectedValue(picks, probabilities);
 		calcProbabilityOfWin(picks);
 		render(picks, probabilities);
 		//cProb( picks, probabilities);
 	 });
 }


 function render( picks, prob1){
 	
 		  
 	renderTable(picks, prob1);
 	
 	data = picks.filter(function(d){return d[PROB_COLUMN] > 0}).map(function(d){ 
 		d.value = d[PROB_COLUMN]; 
 		return d; 
 	});
    renderCircles(data);
 }

 function renderTable( picks, prob1){

 						                   					
 	var headerData = picks[0];	
 	var picks_table = d3.select("#picks")
                    .append("table")
 					.attr("class","table table-striped table-condensed");
 	picks_table.append("thead").append("tr")
 					.selectAll("th")
 					.data(headerData)
 					.enter().append("th")
 					.text(function(d) {
 						return d;
 					});
 	var sortedPicks = picks.slice(1).sort(function(a, b) { 
 	//	if( b[PROB_COLUMN] == a[PROB_COLUMN])
 	//		return b[EV_COLUMN] - a[EV_COLUMN];
 		return b[PROB_COLUMN] - a[PROB_COLUMN]; 
 	});
 	
 		var rows = picks_table.append("tbody").selectAll("tr")
            .data(sortedPicks).enter();
                    
 			rows.append("tr")
             .selectAll("td")
             .data(function(d) { 
 				return d;
 			}).enter()
            .append("td")
            .text(function(d,i) { 
 	//			if( i == WAYSTOWIN_COLUMN) 
 	//				return;							
 				if(  i < PROB_COLUMN ){																		
 					return d;								
 				}
 				//if(  i< 32 ){																		
 				//	return parseInt(d);								
 				//}
 				return Number(d).toFixed(1); 
 			})
 			.attr("class", function(d, i){
 			//	if( i == WAYSTOWIN_COLUMN) 
 			//		return;
 				var classname ="";
 				if( isNaN(d, i)){
 					var round = 0;
 					if( i > 9 ) round =1;
 					if( i > 13) round =2;
 					if( i == 16 ) round =3;
 					classname = teamColor(d, round);					
 					return classname;
 				}
 					
 			});

 		var table = d3.select("#stats").append('table').attr("class","table table-striped table-condensed");
 		var thead = table.append('thead')
 		var	tbody_stats = table.append('tbody');
 		var columns = ["team","win"];

 		// append the header row
 		thead.append('tr')
 		  .selectAll('th')
 		  .data(columns).enter()
 		  .append('th')
 		    .text(function (column) { 			
 				return column;
 			});
 			
 		// create a row for each object in the data
 		var rows = tbody_stats.selectAll('tr')
 		  .data(prob1.sort(function(a, b) { 
 							return b.win[2] - a.win[2]; 
 						}).filter(function(d){
 			  return d.win[2] > 0;
 		  }))
 		  .enter()
 		  .append('tr');


 		// create a cell in each row for each column
 		var cells = rows.selectAll('td')
 		  .data(function (row) {
 			  var ret = [];
 			  ret.push( row.team);
 			  row.win.forEach( function(w){
 				  ret.push( row.team+","+w );
 			  });
 			  return ret; 
 		  })
 		  .enter()
 		  .append('td')
 		  .text(function (d, i) { 
 			if( i > 0){	
 		  		var odds = d.split(',')[1];
 				return odds;

 			}
 			else{
 			  return d;
 			}
 				
 			})
 			 .attr("class", function(d, i){
 				var classname ="";
 				var team = d.split(',')[0];
 				if( i > 0){	
 					classname = teamColor(team, i-1);					
 					return classname;
 				}								
 			});;
 			 //.style("background-color",function(d){ return teamColor(d.value);});
 	  
 }

 function renderCircles(data){
 	//bubbles needs very specific format, convert data to this.
 	var color = d3.scale.category10(); //color category
 	var diameter = 300; //max size of the bubbles
 	
 	var svg = d3.select("#chart")
    .append("svg")
    .attr("width", diameter)
    .attr("height", diameter)
    .attr("class", "bubble");
 	
 	var bubble = d3.layout.pack()
    .sort(null)
    .size([diameter, diameter])
    .padding(1.5);
 	
    var nodes = bubble.nodes({children:data}).filter(function(d) { return !d.children; });

    //setup the chart
    var bubbles = svg.append("g")
        .attr("transform", "translate(0,0)")
        .selectAll(".bubble")
        .data(nodes.filter(function(d){
 			return d.winProbability > 0.01;
 		}))
        .enter();

    //create the bubbles
    bubbles.append("circle")
        .attr("r", function(d){ return d.r; })
        .attr("cx", function(d){ return d.x; })
        .attr("cy", function(d){ return d.y; })
        .style("fill", function(d) { 
 			if(d[0] == "Jason")
 				return JASON_COLOUR;
 			return color(d[0]); 
 		})
 		.on("mouseover", function(d) {		
            div.transition()		
                .duration(200)		
                .style("opacity", .9);		
            div	.html(waysToWinHTML(d) )	
                .style("left", (d3.event.pageX) + "px")		
                .style("top", (d3.event.pageY - 28) + "px");	
            })					
        .on("mouseout", function(d) {		
            div.transition()		
                .duration(200)		
                .style("opacity", 0);	
        });;

    //format the text for each bubble
    bubbles.append("text")
        .attr("x", function(d){ return d.x; })
        .attr("y", function(d){ return d.y + 5; })
        .attr("text-anchor", "middle")
        .html(function(d){ 
 			var names = d[0].split("/");
 			var html = "";
 			var div = "";
 			for( var n in names){
 				html += div + names[n];
 				div = "-";
 			}
 			return html; 
 		})
 		.on("mouseover", function(d) {		
            div.transition()		
                .duration(200)		
                .style("opacity", .9);		
            div	.html(waysToWinHTML(d) )	
                .style("left", (d3.event.pageX) + "px")		
                .style("top", (d3.event.pageY - 28) + "px");	
            })					
        .on("mouseout", function(d) {		
            div.transition()		
                .duration(200)		
                .style("opacity", 0);	
        })
 		.style( {
            "font-family":"Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, san-serif",
 			"font-size":
 			function(d) { 
 				return Math.min(2 * d.r, (2 * d.r - 8) / this.getComputedTextLength() * 13) + "px"; 
 		}});
 }
 //content for tooltip popup
 function waysToWinHTML(list){
 	var ways = "<h3>Ways to win or tie: "+list.wins.length+" TOP "+ Math.min(10,list.wins.length) +"</h3>";
 	ways += "<table class='table ways'>";
 	
 	var sortedList = list.wins.sort(function(a, b){return b[15] - a[15];}).slice(0,10);
 	for( var i in sortedList){
 		ways+="<tr>";
 		for( var j in sortedList[i]){
 				ways+="<td nowrap>"+sortedList[i][j]+"</td>";
 		}
 		ways+="</tr>";
 	}
 	ways += "</table>";

 	return ways;
 }

 //add columns to each person's pick to show their expected value
 function expectedValue(picklist ){
 	for( var i in picklist){
 		var row = picklist[i];
 		if( i ==0){
 			row.push("EV");
 			row.push("P(%)");
 			row.push("");
 			row.push("current value($)");
 		}
 		if( i > 0 ){
 			var ev = 0;			
 			for (var p = DATA_START; p < DATA_START+NUMBER_OF_PICKS; p++) {
 				var team = row[p];
 				var gameGuess = row[p+7];
 				var round = 0;
 				if( p - DATA_START>3) round = 1
 				if( p - DATA_START == 6 ) round = 2;
 				ev += probability(team, round)*3;
 //				ev += possibleGames(p, gameGuess);
 			}
 			row.push(ev);
 			row.push(0);
 			row.push([]);
 			row.push(0);
 			row.paid=row[PAID_COLUMN];		
 		}
 	}
 }

 function calcProbabilityOfWin(picks) {
 	for( var j in picks ){
 		picks[j].gameGuess = 0;
 	}
 	var totalP = 0, count = 0;
 	games[0].forEach(function (a) {
 		games[1].forEach(function (b) {
 			games[2].forEach(function (c) {
 				games[3].forEach(function (d) {
 					games[4].forEach(function (e) {
 						games[5].forEach(function (f) {
 							games[6].forEach(function (g) {
 								games[7].forEach(function (h) {

 									games[8].forEach(function (i) {
 										if( i !== a && i != b) return;
 										games[9].forEach(function (j) {
 											if( j !== c && j != d) return;
 											games[10].forEach(function (k) {
 												if( k !== e && k != f) return;
 												games[11].forEach(function (l) {
 													if( l !== g && l != h) return;
 													
 													games[12].forEach(function (m) {
 														if( m !== i && m != j) return;														
 														games[13].forEach(function (n) {
 															if( n !== k && n != l) return;

 															games[14].forEach(function (p) {
 																if( p !== m && p != n) return;
 																var winners = [a,b, c, d, e, f, g, h,
 																i, j, k, l, m, n, p];
 																var prob = probOf(winners);
 																count++;

 																totalP += prob;
 																updateWinners(winners, prob);
 															});
 														});
 													});
 												});
 											});
 										});
 									});
 								});
 							});
 						});
 					});
 				});
 			});
 		});
 	});
 	console.log( count +" "+totalP);
 }

 function updateWinners(winners, prob){
 	var poolWinnerList = findPoolWinner(winners);
 	//console.log( poolWinnerList );
 	winners.push(prob.toFixed(5))

 	for( var pi in poolWinnerList){
 		var index = parseInt(poolWinnerList[pi]);		
 		var pick = picks[index]
 		pick[PROB_COLUMN] += prob*100.0;
 		pick.winProbability = picks[index][PROB_COLUMN];
 		if( !pick.wins){
 			pick.wins = [];
 		}
 		if( prob > 0.0001){
 			pick.wins.push( winners);
 		}
 		
 	}
 }

 function possible( winners){
 	if( !(winners[4] == winners[0] ||  winners[4] == winners[1]))
 		return false;
 	if( !(winners[5] == winners[2] ||  winners[5] == winners[3]))
 		return false;
 	if( !(winners[6] == winners[4] ||  winners[6] == winners[5]))
 		return false;
 	return true;
 }

 //should the current "number of games guesses" be included here?
 function findPoolWinner(winners){
 	var winnerList=[];
 	var count = [];//track the "score" for each entry for this combination of winners
 	for( j in picks ){
 		count[j] = picks[j].gameGuess;
 	}
 	for( var i =0; i < winners.length; i++){
 		var pts = pointsForRound( i )
 		for( var t=1;t< picks.length;t++ ){
 			var pick = picks[t];
 			var pickVal = pick[DATA_START+i];
 			if( pickVal == winners[i]){
 				count[t]+=pts;
 			}
 		}
 	}
 	
 	var maxval = 0;
 	for( j in picks ){		
 		if( count[j] > maxval){
 			maxval = count[j];
 			winnerList=[];
 		}
 		if( count[j] == maxval){
 			winnerList.push(j);
 		}
 	}
 	return winnerList;
 }

 function pointsForRound( index){
 	var points  = 1;
 	if( index > 7) points = 3;
 	if( index > 11) points = 5;
 	if( index > 13) points = 10;
 	return points; 
 }

 //find the combined probability of the events in the winners array occurring
 //this is wrong. It should calculate the probability of the combination of events but include the dependent
 //odds
 // the probability of a team reaching a later round is dependant on the probability of it making an earlier round
 //for example, the odds of a team making the finals isn't the odds it will make each earlier round times the odds it will makes each //later round.
 // it's just the odds of the final event
 function probOf( winners){
 	var  p =1;
 	var round;
 	var done = [];
 	for( var i =winners.length-1; i >=0 ; i--){
 		var round=0;
 		if( i > 7){
 			round =1 ;
 		}
 		if (i > 11 ){
 			round =2;
 		}			
 		if( i > 13){
 			round = 3;
 		}
 		if( !done.includes( winners[i]) ){
 			p*= probability(winners[i], round);
 			done.push(winners[i]);
 		}
 	}
 	return p;
 }

 function probability(team, round){
 	return probMap[team][round];
 }
 	
 function teamColor( team, round ){
 	if( !probMap[team]) return "";
 			 var w = probMap[team][round];
 			 if( w == 0 ) return "disabled";
 			 else if( w == 1 ) return "won";
 			 else if( w < 0.20 ) return "danger";
 			 else if( w < 0.50 ) return "warning";
 			 else if (w < .80)return "info";
 			 else return "success";
 		 
 }

diff --git a/games2022.csv b/games2022.csv
 COL,NSH
 MIN,STL
 CGY,DAL
 EDM,LAK
 FLA,WSH
 TOR,TBL
 CAR,BOS
 NYR,PIT
 COL,NSH,MIN,STL
 CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK
 FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL
 CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
 COL,NSH,MIN,STL,CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK
 FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL,CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
 COL,NSH,MIN,STL,CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK,FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL,CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
diff --git a/index.html b/index.html
 <html>
 <head> 
 <title>2022 NHL Pool</title>
 <style>
 div.tooltip {	
    position: absolute;			
    text-align: center;			
    width: 900px;					
    height: 500px;					
    padding: 2px;				
    font: 12px sans-serif;		
    background: lightsteelblue;	
    border: 0px;		
    border-radius: 8px;			
    pointer-events: none;			
 }
 .disabled {
    background: darkgray;	

 }
 .won {
 	background: green;
 }
 .point{
    border: 4px;	
 border-style: solid;
    border-color: #00ff00;	

 }
 .partialpoint{
    border: 4px;	
 border-style: solid;
    border-color: #ffff00;	

 }
 </style>

 </head>
 <body>
 <div class="container">
 <div class="row">
   <div class="col-md-12" id="picks">
  </div>
  <div class="col-md-4" >
   <div class="panel panel-default well">
    <div class="panel-heading">Probability of win</div>
    <div class="panel-body " id="chart"></div>
   </div>
  </div>

  <div class="col-md-6" id="stats">
   <table class="table table-striped table-condensed")>
    <tr><td>ROUND 1	</td><td>1 point per correct pick (possible 8 points)		</td></tr>
    <tr><td>ROUND 2		</td><td>3 points per pick (possible 12 points)		</td></tr>
    <tr><td>ROUND 3		</td><td>5 points per pick (possible 10 points)		</td></tr>
    <tr><td>FINALS	</td><td>10 points for winner		</td></tr>
   </table>
  </div>
 </div>
 </div>

 	
 <script src="https://d3js.org/d3.v3.min.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 <script src="bracket2017.js"></script>
 <link href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/3.3.7/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous">
 </body>

 </html>
diff --git a/picks2022.csv b/picks2022.csv
diff --git a/simulations_recent.csv b/simulations_recent.csv
diff --git a/updateSimulations.sh b/updateSimulations.sh
 rm simulations_recent.*
 wget https://moneypuck.com/moneypuck/simulations/simulations_recent.csv

	var JASON_COLOUR = "#f79620";
	//field position constants;
	//PICKS fields
	var YEAR = "2022";
	var NAME_COLUMN=15;
	var DATA_START=2;
	var NUMBER_OF_PICKS=7;
	var PROB_COLUMN=17;

	var picks;
	var sharedOdds = true;
	var games;
	var div = d3.select("body").append("div")
	.attr("class", "tooltip")
	.style("opacity", 0);


	readGames();

	function readGames(){
	d3.text("games"+YEAR+".csv", function(text){
	games = d3.csv.parseRows(text)
	readPicks();
	});
	}

	function readPicks(){
	d3.text("picks"+YEAR+".csv", function(data) {
	var oldpicks = d3.csv.parseRows(data);
	picks = [];
	oldpicks.forEach( function(d){
	d = d.slice(0,17);
	d.push(0); //probability column

	picks.push(d);
	});
	readSimulations(picks);
	});
	}
	var probMap = {};

	function readSimulations(picks){
	d3.csv("simulations_recent.csv", function(probabilities) {
	probabilities = [].map.call(probabilities.filter(function(d){
	return d.scenerio == "ALL" //d.madePlayoffs === "1" &&
	}), function(row) {
	var probGame = [];
	probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin4) + Number(row.round3Lossin4));
	probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin5) + Number(row.round3Lossin5));
	probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin6) + Number(row.round3Lossin7));
	probGame.push( Number(row.round3Winin7)+ Number(row.round3Lossin7));
	var wins = [];
	wins.push( Number(row.round2));
	wins.push( Number(row.round3));
	wins.push( Number(row.round4));
	wins.push( Number(row.wonCup));
	return {
	gamesHome: 3,//Number(gameText[0]),
	gamesAway: 2,//Number(gameText[1]),
	gameNumChance: probGame,
	team: row.teamCode,
	win:wins
	};
	});
	probabilities.forEach(p=> probMap[p.team] = p.win);
	//expectedValue(picks, probabilities);
	calcProbabilityOfWin(picks);
	render(picks, probabilities);
	//cProb( picks, probabilities);
	});
	}


	function render( picks, prob1){


	renderTable(picks, prob1);

	data = picks.filter(function(d){return d[PROB_COLUMN] > 0}).map(function(d){
	d.value = d[PROB_COLUMN];
	return d;
	});
	renderCircles(data);
	}

	function renderTable( picks, prob1){


	var headerData = picks[0];
	var picks_table = d3.select("#picks")
	.append("table")
	.attr("class","table table-striped table-condensed");
	picks_table.append("thead").append("tr")
	.selectAll("th")
	.data(headerData)
	.enter().append("th")
	.text(function(d) {
	return d;
	});
	var sortedPicks = picks.slice(1).sort(function(a, b) {
	// if( b[PROB_COLUMN] == a[PROB_COLUMN])
	// return b[EV_COLUMN] - a[EV_COLUMN];
	return b[PROB_COLUMN] - a[PROB_COLUMN];
	});

	var rows = picks_table.append("tbody").selectAll("tr")
	.data(sortedPicks).enter();

	rows.append("tr")
	.selectAll("td")
	.data(function(d) {
	return d;
	}).enter()
	.append("td")
	.text(function(d,i) {
	// if( i == WAYSTOWIN_COLUMN)
	// return;
	if( i < PROB_COLUMN ){
	return d;
	}
	//if( i< 32 ){
	// return parseInt(d);
	//}
	return Number(d).toFixed(1);
	})
	.attr("class", function(d, i){
	// if( i == WAYSTOWIN_COLUMN)
	// return;
	var classname ="";
	if( isNaN(d, i)){
	var round = 0;
	if( i > 9 ) round =1;
	if( i > 13) round =2;
	if( i == 16 ) round =3;
	classname = teamColor(d, round);
	return classname;
	}

	});

	var table = d3.select("#stats").append('table').attr("class","table table-striped table-condensed");
	var thead = table.append('thead')
	var tbody_stats = table.append('tbody');
	var columns = ["team","win"];

	// append the header row
	thead.append('tr')
	.selectAll('th')
	.data(columns).enter()
	.append('th')
	.text(function (column) {
	return column;
	});

	// create a row for each object in the data
	var rows = tbody_stats.selectAll('tr')
	.data(prob1.sort(function(a, b) {
	return b.win[2] - a.win[2];
	}).filter(function(d){
	return d.win[2] > 0;
	}))
	.enter()
	.append('tr');


	// create a cell in each row for each column
	var cells = rows.selectAll('td')
	.data(function (row) {
	var ret = [];
	ret.push( row.team);
	row.win.forEach( function(w){
	ret.push( row.team+","+w );
	});
	return ret;
	})
	.enter()
	.append('td')
	.text(function (d, i) {
	if( i > 0){
	var odds = d.split(',')[1];
	return odds;

	}
	else{
	return d;
	}

	})
	.attr("class", function(d, i){
	var classname ="";
	var team = d.split(',')[0];
	if( i > 0){
	classname = teamColor(team, i-1);
	return classname;
	}
	});;
	//.style("background-color",function(d){ return teamColor(d.value);});

	}

	function renderCircles(data){
	//bubbles needs very specific format, convert data to this.
	var color = d3.scale.category10(); //color category
	var diameter = 300; //max size of the bubbles

	var svg = d3.select("#chart")
	.append("svg")
	.attr("width", diameter)
	.attr("height", diameter)
	.attr("class", "bubble");

	var bubble = d3.layout.pack()
	.sort(null)
	.size([diameter, diameter])
	.padding(1.5);

	var nodes = bubble.nodes({children:data}).filter(function(d) { return !d.children; });

	//setup the chart
	var bubbles = svg.append("g")
	.attr("transform", "translate(0,0)")
	.selectAll(".bubble")
	.data(nodes.filter(function(d){
	return d.winProbability > 0.01;
	}))
	.enter();

	//create the bubbles
	bubbles.append("circle")
	.attr("r", function(d){ return d.r; })
	.attr("cx", function(d){ return d.x; })
	.attr("cy", function(d){ return d.y; })
	.style("fill", function(d) {
	if(d[0] == "Jason")
	return JASON_COLOUR;
	return color(d[0]);
	})
	.on("mouseover", function(d) {
	div.transition()
	.duration(200)
	.style("opacity", .9);
	div .html(waysToWinHTML(d) )
	.style("left", (d3.event.pageX) + "px")
	.style("top", (d3.event.pageY - 28) + "px");
	})
	.on("mouseout", function(d) {
	div.transition()
	.duration(200)
	.style("opacity", 0);
	});;

	//format the text for each bubble
	bubbles.append("text")
	.attr("x", function(d){ return d.x; })
	.attr("y", function(d){ return d.y + 5; })
	.attr("text-anchor", "middle")
	.html(function(d){
	var names = d[0].split("/");
	var html = "";
	var div = "";
	for( var n in names){
	html += div + names[n];
	div = "-";
	}
	return html;
	})
	.on("mouseover", function(d) {
	div.transition()
	.duration(200)
	.style("opacity", .9);
	div .html(waysToWinHTML(d) )
	.style("left", (d3.event.pageX) + "px")
	.style("top", (d3.event.pageY - 28) + "px");
	})
	.on("mouseout", function(d) {
	div.transition()
	.duration(200)
	.style("opacity", 0);
	})
	.style( {
	"font-family":"Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, san-serif",
	"font-size":
	function(d) {
	return Math.min(2 * d.r, (2 * d.r - 8) / this.getComputedTextLength() * 13) + "px";
	}});
	}
	//content for tooltip popup
	function waysToWinHTML(list){
	var ways = "<h3>Ways to win or tie: "+list.wins.length+" TOP "+ Math.min(10,list.wins.length) +"</h3>";
	ways += "<table class='table ways'>";

	var sortedList = list.wins.sort(function(a, b){return b[15] - a[15];}).slice(0,10);
	for( var i in sortedList){
	ways+="<tr>";
	for( var j in sortedList[i]){
	ways+="<td nowrap>"+sortedList[i][j]+"</td>";
	}
	ways+="</tr>";
	}
	ways += "</table>";

	return ways;
	}

	//add columns to each person's pick to show their expected value
	function expectedValue(picklist ){
	for( var i in picklist){
	var row = picklist[i];
	if( i ==0){
	row.push("EV");
	row.push("P(%)");
	row.push("");
	row.push("current value($)");
	}
	if( i > 0 ){
	var ev = 0;
	for (var p = DATA_START; p < DATA_START+NUMBER_OF_PICKS; p++) {
	var team = row[p];
	var gameGuess = row[p+7];
	var round = 0;
	if( p - DATA_START>3) round = 1
	if( p - DATA_START == 6 ) round = 2;
	ev += probability(team, round)*3;
	// ev += possibleGames(p, gameGuess);
	}
	row.push(ev);
	row.push(0);
	row.push([]);
	row.push(0);
	row.paid=row[PAID_COLUMN];
	}
	}
	}

	function calcProbabilityOfWin(picks) {
	for( var j in picks ){
	picks[j].gameGuess = 0;
	}
	var totalP = 0, count = 0;
	games[0].forEach(function (a) {
	games[1].forEach(function (b) {
	games[2].forEach(function (c) {
	games[3].forEach(function (d) {
	games[4].forEach(function (e) {
	games[5].forEach(function (f) {
	games[6].forEach(function (g) {
	games[7].forEach(function (h) {

	games[8].forEach(function (i) {
	if( i !== a && i != b) return;
	games[9].forEach(function (j) {
	if( j !== c && j != d) return;
	games[10].forEach(function (k) {
	if( k !== e && k != f) return;
	games[11].forEach(function (l) {
	if( l !== g && l != h) return;

	games[12].forEach(function (m) {
	if( m !== i && m != j) return;
	games[13].forEach(function (n) {
	if( n !== k && n != l) return;

	games[14].forEach(function (p) {
	if( p !== m && p != n) return;
	var winners = [a,b, c, d, e, f, g, h,
	i, j, k, l, m, n, p];
	var prob = probOf(winners);
	count++;

	totalP += prob;
	updateWinners(winners, prob);
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	});
	console.log( count +" "+totalP);
	}

	function updateWinners(winners, prob){
	var poolWinnerList = findPoolWinner(winners);
	//console.log( poolWinnerList );
	winners.push(prob.toFixed(5))

	for( var pi in poolWinnerList){
	var index = parseInt(poolWinnerList[pi]);
	var pick = picks[index]
	pick[PROB_COLUMN] += prob*100.0;
	pick.winProbability = picks[index][PROB_COLUMN];
	if( !pick.wins){
	pick.wins = [];
	}
	if( prob > 0.0001){
	pick.wins.push( winners);
	}

	}
	}

	function possible( winners){
	if( !(winners[4] == winners[0] \|\| winners[4] == winners[1]))
	return false;
	if( !(winners[5] == winners[2] \|\| winners[5] == winners[3]))
	return false;
	if( !(winners[6] == winners[4] \|\| winners[6] == winners[5]))
	return false;
	return true;
	}

	//should the current "number of games guesses" be included here?
	function findPoolWinner(winners){
	var winnerList=[];
	var count = [];//track the "score" for each entry for this combination of winners
	for( j in picks ){
	count[j] = picks[j].gameGuess;
	}
	for( var i =0; i < winners.length; i++){
	var pts = pointsForRound( i )
	for( var t=1;t< picks.length;t++ ){
	var pick = picks[t];
	var pickVal = pick[DATA_START+i];
	if( pickVal == winners[i]){
	count[t]+=pts;
	}
	}
	}

	var maxval = 0;
	for( j in picks ){
	if( count[j] > maxval){
	maxval = count[j];
	winnerList=[];
	}
	if( count[j] == maxval){
	winnerList.push(j);
	}
	}
	return winnerList;
	}

	function pointsForRound( index){
	var points = 1;
	if( index > 7) points = 3;
	if( index > 11) points = 5;
	if( index > 13) points = 10;
	return points;
	}

	//find the combined probability of the events in the winners array occurring
	//this is wrong. It should calculate the probability of the combination of events but include the dependent
	//odds
	// the probability of a team reaching a later round is dependant on the probability of it making an earlier round
	//for example, the odds of a team making the finals isn't the odds it will make each earlier round times the odds it will makes each //later round.
	// it's just the odds of the final event
	function probOf( winners){
	var p =1;
	var round;
	var done = [];
	for( var i =winners.length-1; i >=0 ; i--){
	var round=0;
	if( i > 7){
	round =1 ;
	}
	if (i > 11 ){
	round =2;
	}
	if( i > 13){
	round = 3;
	}
	if( !done.includes( winners[i]) ){
	p*= probability(winners[i], round);
	done.push(winners[i]);
	}
	}
	return p;
	}

	function probability(team, round){
	return probMap[team][round];
	}

	function teamColor( team, round ){
	if( !probMap[team]) return "";
	var w = probMap[team][round];
	if( w == 0 ) return "disabled";
	else if( w == 1 ) return "won";
	else if( w < 0.20 ) return "danger";
	else if( w < 0.50 ) return "warning";
	else if (w < .80)return "info";
	else return "success";

	}
	COL,NSH
	MIN,STL
	CGY,DAL
	EDM,LAK
	FLA,WSH
	TOR,TBL
	CAR,BOS
	NYR,PIT
	COL,NSH,MIN,STL
	CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK
	FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL
	CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
	COL,NSH,MIN,STL,CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK
	FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL,CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
	COL,NSH,MIN,STL,CGY,DAL,EDM,LAK,FLA,WSH,TOR,TBL,CAR,BOS,NYR,PIT
	<html>
	<head>
	<title>2022 NHL Pool</title>
	<style>
	div.tooltip {
	position: absolute;
	text-align: center;
	width: 900px;
	height: 500px;
	padding: 2px;
	font: 12px sans-serif;
	background: lightsteelblue;
	border: 0px;
	border-radius: 8px;
	pointer-events: none;
	}
	.disabled {
	background: darkgray;

	}
	.won {
	background: green;
	}
	.point{
	border: 4px;
	border-style: solid;
	border-color: #00ff00;

	}
	.partialpoint{
	border: 4px;
	border-style: solid;
	border-color: #ffff00;

	}
	</style>

	</head>
	<body>
	<div class="container">
	<div class="row">
	<div class="col-md-12" id="picks">
	</div>
	<div class="col-md-4" >
	<div class="panel panel-default well">
	<div class="panel-heading">Probability of win</div>
	<div class="panel-body " id="chart"></div>
	</div>
	</div>

	<div class="col-md-6" id="stats">
	<table class="table table-striped table-condensed")>
	<tr><td>ROUND 1 </td><td>1 point per correct pick (possible 8 points) </td></tr>
	<tr><td>ROUND 2 </td><td>3 points per pick (possible 12 points) </td></tr>
	<tr><td>ROUND 3 </td><td>5 points per pick (possible 10 points) </td></tr>
	<tr><td>FINALS </td><td>10 points for winner </td></tr>
	</table>
	</div>
	</div>
	</div>


	<script src="https://d3js.org/d3.v3.min.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

	<script src="bracket2017.js"></script>
	<link href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/3.3.7/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous">
	</body>

	</html>
	paid	EAST 1	East 2	East 3	East 4	West 1	West 2	West 3	West 4	East A	East B	West A	West B	East Final	West Final	Finals
Bell		COL	MIN	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	CAR	NYR	COL	CGY	FLA	NYR	COL	FLA	COL
WLG		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	CAR	NYR	COL	CGY	TBL	CAR	COL	CAR	COL
Drew		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	CAR	NYR	COL	CGY	TBL	CAR	COL	CAR	COL
Poole		COL	MIN	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	BOS	PIT	COL	CGY	TOR	BOS	CGY	TOR	CGY
Jeff Thurston		COL	MIN	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	CAR	NYR	COL	CGY	FLA	CAR	COL	FLA	COL
Mitchy the Kid		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	BOS	NYR	COL	CGY	TOR	NYR	COL	TOR	COL
Sower&Reaper		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	CAR	NYR	COL	CGY	FLA	CAR	CGY	FLA	CGY
LittleBoyBlue		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	CAR	PIT	COL	CGY	FLA	PIT	CGY	FLA	FLA
Blake1		COL	STL	DAL	EDM	FLA	TBL	CAR	NYR	COL	EDM	FLA	CAR	COL	FLA	FLA
darb revluc		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	BOS	PIT	COL	CGY	FLA	BOS	CGY	FLA	CGY
Hugh		COL	MIN	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	BOS	NYR	COL	CGY	FLA	NYR	CGY	FLA	CGY
Farq		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	BOS	NYR	COL	CGY	FLA	BOS	COL	FLA	COL
HockeyMan		COL	MIN	CGY	EDM	FLA	TBL	CAR	PIT	COL	CGY	TBL	CAR	COL	TBL	COL
Jason		COL	STL	CGY	EDM	FLA	TOR	BOS	NYR	COL	EDM	TOR	BOS	EDM	TOR	EDM
	rm simulations_recent.*
	wget https://moneypuck.com/moneypuck/simulations/simulations_recent.csv